I may be a little biased, but the headline from Week 11 has to be the incredible and improbable victory that I pulled out on the Sunday and Monday night games and the implications that game had on the playoff picture. First of all, Travis Kelce is a monster, and for the 2nd time this season, he has pulled out a win for me in a primetime game. Kelce’s 29 points in Week 11 were the 4th most ever from the TE position. Secondly, Sean still maintains the #1 seed but it’s by way of a strength of victory tiebreaker. Jacob and Sean split their interdivisional series, so strength of victory could be the deciding factor for the top seed. It is looking highly likely that Sean will maintain that tiebreaker in the event these two teams end up tied. Thirdly, Jacob and Sean become the 3rd and 4th teams to start the season 9-2. We have never seen a 10-1 or better team. The two previous teams to start the season 9-2 were Sean’s 2012 team, “Cruz Control,” and Aaron’s 2013 team, “Two Dollar Pistols.” Both teams went on to win the championship.
Sean had already clinched a playoff spot last week thanks to his division record of 6-1. Even if he were to lose out, the schedule makes it so the other teams in his division will not all be able to pass him. Two of the teams could, but Sean would win any tiebreaker against Erik, Schweg or Ryan by either his head-to-head record, or his division record, or if a team still is tied with Sean, his strength of victory will be high enough to break any tie. Now we have a second playoff team with Jacob officially clinching the Vaidenville Division. His 9-2 record means he can finish 9-5 at worst, while Aaron could be 8-6 at best.
Erik’s 8-3 start is the best start by any defending champion. Through Week 11, here are the results of each defending champion. You’ll see how only 2 defending champions have ever made the playoffs and they were both Terrance.
2012: Jake (4-6-1) - finished 9th
2013: Sean (1-10) - finished 9th
2014: Aaron (5-6) - finished 7th
2015: Terrance (5-6) - finished 3rd
2016: Jacob (3-8) - finished 10th
2017: Jake (6-5) - finished 5th
2018: Erik (1-10) - finished 10th
2019: Terrance (5-6) - finished 1st
2020: Terrance (5-6) - finished 8th
2021: Aaron (6-5) - finished 6th
2022: Erik (8-3)
Erik is currently the #3 seed, but he was swept by Sean meaning he would have to win 2 more games than Sean in the final two weeks to overtake him for the division.
The elder Schwegler holds on to the #4 seed despite a loss to put him at 7-4. Ryan sits right behind him at 6-5, but thanks to a season sweep, he essentially has a 2-game lead over both Ryan and Aaron going into the final 3 weeks. There have been 30 teams to start their season 7-4 or better, and every single one of them has made the playoffs. It would be pretty embarrassing to be the first 7-4 team to miss the playoffs.
With a win over the league’s top team, Ryan’s season might have been saved, but he still has an uphill battle to crack the top 4. The schedule of the last 3 weeks is also very interesting with many of these teams having to play each other. We will take a look at the upcoming schedule a little later.
Aaron gets 45 points in Mexico City to snap his 4 game losing streak and remain in the playoff picture. He can’t win his division. He can’t pass Sean, and he lost against Erik so he would lose a tiebreaker, which means he must overtake both Schweg and Ryan in the final 3 weeks. He lost the season series to Ryan, so he would need to pass him outright, but he would win a tiebreaker over Schweg. If Aaron wins out, he could even afford to let Schweg win one more game and still make the playoffs as long as Ryan lost two of his last three.
Jake has now scored fewer than 80 points in 4 consecutive games, which is the longest streak of his career. That is tied for the 3rd longest streak for scoring less than 80 points in a game. There are four teams tied with a 5-game streak of sub-80 scoring, and Jarrett’s record setting lowest scoring team from 2017 went 9 consecutive weeks without hitting 80 points. Something interest that came out of this data was out of the 15 different streaks of at four games scoring below 80 points, 5 of those teams ended up making the playoffs.
The last 4 wins for Ryan have been very close, with the margins of victory being 4, 1, 3 and 4.
Sean is still our season points leader averaging 109.9 points per game which is on pace for 1,539 points which is only good enough for 4th most all time. He will need to finish with 1,547 points to have the 1st, 2nd and 3rd highest scoring seasons in league history.
At the other end of the spectrum, Chase is averaging just 74.8 points per game which puts him on pace for 1,047 points which would be the 2nd fewest ever.
For the first time this season, Schweg is now the team who has the most points scored against him, with an average of 99.5 points against every week. It seems like a lot but that pace wouldn’t even crack the top 10.
Also a newcomer to the points list, Jacob is now on top for fewest points scored against. Maybe he’s 9-2 partly because he’s only having 83.4 points scored against him per game. That pace of 1,168 points against would be the 5th fewest in league history.
The 135 points that Aaron scored were the 3rd most in any game this season, and it was tied for the 2nd most points that Aaron has ever scored in a game.
Jarrett has now lost back-to-back games by 1 point. This was the first time in league history that we had back-to-back weeks where the even was a 1-point margin of victory, unless you count Jake’s 1-point in Robbie Bowl VI and the “following” week 1 of the 2017 season. The fact that the first time this happened also included Jarrett being the loser of both games seems highly improbable and unfortunate. Jarrett has been so close in most of his games too, losing 8 games by 17 or fewer points. This was Jarrett’s 4th career loss by 1-point, tying Chase for the most such losses.
Tyler Bass records the 7th 20+ point game from a kicker in league history. Brett Maher also scored 20 points, but was dropped by Schweg before gametime.
Aaron records his 99th win, and will be looking to become the first owner with 100 wins by defeating Jake in Week 12.
Ryan has now tied Jake for the 2nd-most wins in league history with 94.
No team has ever finished undefeated within their division, but there have been three teams that finished 7-1. Aaron in 2013 (finished 1st), Schweg in 2017 (finished 2nd), and Erik in 2021 (finished 1st) all went 7-1 in their division. Sean got his first division loss, but will play Schweg in Week 14 to try to get to 7-1. Jacob remains undefeated with two more division games left. He plays Aaron in Week 13 and Jake in Week 14.
In a repeat of Robbie Bowl XI from last season, Erik defeats Jake once again to complete the season sweep. Erik has been dominant over Jake lately. Amidst Erik’s 1-12-1 disaster season of 2018, Erik managed to tie Jake in Week 13, ending Jake’s chances of making the playoffs. Erik is 8-1 against Jake since then.
Schweg overtakes Jarrett and how has had the most career points scored against him with an average of 94.70 points scored against him each game.
Ryan passes Chase to move into 2nd place for highest average points per game from the QB position.
Jarrett passes Terrance to move into 4th place for highest average points per game from the WR position.
Ryan passes Sean to move into 3rd place for highest average points per game from the TE position.
Jake has started a league-high 32 different players across all positions, while Erik has started a league-low 21 different players.
Jake has failed to score 100 points in 10 consecutive games, which is tied for the 5th longest streak in league history.
Final 3 Weeks
Hardly a week ago, our playoff picture looked clear and simple. Things got a little bit more interesting in Week 11. As mentioned earlier, Sean is our top seed and in control of his destiny. His final games are against Jarrett, Jake and Schweg.
Jacob is our #2 seed and finishes the season against Ryan, Aaron and Jake.
Erik is our #3 and he plays Terrance, Schweg and Ryan.
Schweg is #4 and plays Chase, Erik and Sean.
Ryan is #5 and plays Jacob, Terrance and Erik.
Aaron is #6 and plays Jake, Jacob and Chase.
Jake has officially been eliminated from playoff contention sitting in 7th place with a 4-7 record, and the other teams below him (Terrance, Chase & Jarrett) are also eliminated.
We don’t need to pick apart the division leaders’ schedules the rest of the year, but seeds 3-6 can get very interesting. Erik plays two teams chasing him which gives him the ability to solidify his playoff status by defeating them, but also opens the door to a possibility where Erik falls out of playoff contention if he loses those games.
Schweg is in control of his playoff destiny and has a favorable matchup against Chase in Week 12. After that, his games are against Erik and Sean, and the two teams chasing him (Ryan and Aaron) will be hoping to see Schweg drop some Ls.
Ryan is hoping to get wins against Jacob and Terrance to get to 8-5, which would likely give him a win-and-get-in scenario in Week 14 against Erik. This season has been very odd, and it is within the realm of possibility that a team could finish 9-5 and still miss the playoffs which would be a first in league history. 83% of 6-loss teams end up making the playoffs.
Aaron’s opponents are irrelevant to his specific playoff picture, which means he will be screen watching several games hoping for some luck to go his way. It would start with Erik losing to Terrance, Schweg losing to Chase and Ryan losing to Jacob in Week 14.
Week 12 Preview
Jacob (9-2) vs Ryan (6-5)
Ryan leads the all-time series 9-8.
Game Rating: 15
Erik (8-3) vs Terrance (3-8)
Terrance leads the all-time series 8-5-1, but Erik has won 4 consecutive games by scoring 131, 110, 104 and 163 points in those games.
Game Rating: 11
Sean (9-2) vs Jarrett (1-10)
Jarrett leads the all-time series 12-8 in the Battle of the Rhythm Section game. Jarrett has won 5 straight against Sean and 11 of the last 12.
Game Rating: 11
Schweg (7-4) vs Chase (3-8)
Schweg leads the all-time series 10-6 and has won 4 consecutive games against Chase.
Game Rating: 10
Aaron (5-6) vs Jake (4-7)
Aaron leads the all-time series 14-9-1 and has won 5 of the last 6 matchups, including a win over Jake in Robbie Bowl X.