I think these notepads are getting longer and longer, but the ratings are up so open wide and get ready for content!
Ryan ran out of Monday night magic and came up just short against Jacob to fall to 6-6. Ryan could’ve put Kyler Murray in over Geno Smith to capture the win, or slotted Garrett Wilson in over Courtland Sutton (duh!) and won comfortably. It was also frustrating to see Jonathan Taylor start to walk in for a 2nd TD before Matt Ryan fumbled the exchange. So many what ifs for us teams that don’t make it. This was a classic Jensen season though. Big opening week followed by getting blown out twice. Then I win two really exciting games to make it to 3-2, but one of my top draft picks then blows his knee out. Fast forward through terrible performances in October to a super low scoring win that saves the hopes of the season. Then the team gets super hot and starts dropping 100 points every week, only to fall 1 point short and miss the playoffs. From here on out, if anyone else ever does this, it shall be called “pulling a Jensen”.
Let’s dive into this juicy meat on the playoff bones. What we already knew was that Jacob has clinched his division, and Sean has clinched a playoff spot. Sean still has the advantage on the #1 seed thanks to a strength of victory (SoV) tiebreaker. Sean currently has an SoV of 58 while Jacob has a 46, which is a large enough margin for Sean to clinch the tiebreaker against Jacob. Sean has not yet clinched his division though. Here are the division leaders’ playoff scenarios.
Sean wins #1 seed with 2 wins.
Sean wins #1 seed with 1 win AND 1 loss from Jacob.
Sean wins #1 seed with 2 losses from Jacob AND 1 loss from Erik.
Jacob wins #1 seed with 2 wins AND 1 loss from Sean.
Jacob wins #1 seed with 1 win AND 2 losses from Sean
Jacob wins #1 seed with 2 losses from Sean AND 1 loss from Erik.
The only way that Sean loses the division is if he loses his last two games and Erik wins his last two games, otherwise he will be the #1 or #2 seed. Jacob is guaranteed to be the #1 or #2 seed.
Erik benefits from the elimination or the commissioner by being the 3rd team to clinch a playoff spot. His 9-3 record extends his record of “best start by a defending champion”, and it is good enough to guarantee he finishes ahead of Ryan and Aaron. Erik joins Terrance as the only defending champions to make the playoffs the following year (Terrance has done it twice). Here are the playoff scenarios for Erik:
Erik wins #1 seed with 2 wins AND 2 losses from Sean AND 2 losses from Jacob.
Erik wins #2 seed with 2 wins AND 2 losses from Sean AND at least 1 win from Jacob.
Erik can clinch finishing no lower than the #3 seed with a win over Schweg this weekend.
If Erik loses to Schweg this weekend, it will guarantee that the Schwegler brothers will be the wildcard teams. They will have split the season series and will both have a 4-3 divisional record. One team could win and the other could lose in Week 14 to decide the #3 and #4 seeds, or if the end up tied, it would mean their divisional records would be tied. Erik has an SoV of 38 while Schweg has an SoV of 36 (with an implied 37 if we are assuming Schweg wins in Week 13). Wins by Aaron, Jake or Terrance will improve Erik’s SoV score, while wins by Jacob will improve Schweg’s SoV score.
Schweg has already been eliminated from the division title race, so he is trying to lock down a wildcard seed with a win in either week 13 or 14. The top 4 we have had for the last month continue to win and the playoffs look mostly secure for those top 4.
But wait…there is another…
Aaron is not dead yet at 6-6 and there is one scenario where he can remove Schweg from the playoff picture. Aaron has to win his last 2 games against Jacob and Chase, and Schweg has to lose his last 2 games against Erik and Sean. That’s 4 games that have to go a certain way for Aaron to sneak into the playoff picture.
Now back into the usual Notepad stuff—
Sean is still our points leader on the season, but his pace has fallen down to 1,511 points, good enough for 5th most in league history.
After one week of having the fewest points scored against, Jacob passes the baton right back to Sean who is having 83.9ppg scored against him. That pace is 1,174, which would be the 5th fewest.
Averaging 75.9ppg, Chase is on pace to have the 3rd lowest scoring season in league history.
Schweg is getting hit with healthy 98.6ºppg, which isn’t too bad because the pace does not crack the top 10.
Jacob becomes the 13th team to record a 6-game winning streak. Four other teams won 6 in a row, and four teams have won 7 in a row. Chase and Erik both won 8 games in a row (across different seasons), while Aaron recorded a 14-game and a 9-game winning streak in 2012 and 2013. If you are wondering how Aaron is our league leader in wins and winning percentage, remember that he went 24-4 during a 28-game stretch back in the day.
Aaron becomes the first owner to win 100 games! He has a regular season record of 92-73-1, a playoff record of 6-4, and a consolation record of 2-2.
The Schwegtopia division leads interdivisional play with a 21-8 record.
For the first time all season, Jarrett is our lowest scorer of the week. Only the big 3 (Sean, Jacob, Erik) have avoided being the lowest weekly scorer.
Prior to last week, we had never seen consecutive weeks where there was a 1-point margin of victory in any game in the league. Then for the first time, we had back to back weeks with a 1-point margin, and Jarrett just happened to be on the losing end of both of them. We now have 3 straight weeks of a 1-point victory, and now it’s Jacob who gets back-to-back 1-point victories. Jacob now leads the league with 5 career 1-point victories. Jacob’s win over Ryan was the 5th 1-point victory where both teams scored over 100 points, and Ryan has been on the losing end of 2 of those games.
Ryan is now tied with Aaron for the 2nd most 100+ point losses. Ryan has a record of 40-13 when scoring at least 100 points. That 75.4% win percentage is the 2nd lowest in the league behind Jarrett’s 70.0% win pct.
For the first time since the 2012 and 2013 seasons, we have at least 3 teams with at least 9 wins. 2013 was the only season that had 3 teams with 10 wins. This season has the potential to yield 3 teams with 11 wins.
For the 2nd time this season, Jacob leads the league in scoring.
For those who saw Derrick Henry catch a pass and run 69 yards before fumbling, you would know that he was so close to scoring a TD but instead fumbled it and it was recovered by Treylon Burks for a TD. If Henry had scored that TD, Chase would’ve beaten Schweg and the playoff picture would be much different. Justin Tucker’s 67-yard FG attempt would’ve given Chase the win as well had he converted.
Terrance now has a record of 2-3 when he has a player score at least 40 points. Josh Jacobs 41 point game marks the 25th 40+ game in league history. Teams are 21-4 when a player scores at least 40 points, with Terrance making up for 3 of those losses. The other was when Aaron had the Seattle D/ST score 41 points in 2012 but he still lost, 151-135.
All of the teams with the better record in each matchup won this week.
Jarrett becomes the 7th team in league history to lose at least 11 games in one season. Only one team has lost 12 games and that was Erik in 2018, whose team name was “Hail Mary Jane,” finished just 1-12-1. One more win would keep FreiermuthKnuckleth out of being the worst team in league history.
Aaron has now won 6 of the last 7 games against Jake and leads the series 15-9-1. The 15 wins are tied for 3rd most for any owner vs another.
After the series was tied up at 6-6 in 2019, Schweg has now won 5 straight games against Chase to lead the series 11-6.
Erik has defeated Terrance in 5 consecutive games, and is averaging 124.4ppg in those games. Erik used to have a record of 1-8-1 against Terrance which was the most lopsided rivalry at the time. Now Erik is 6-8-1 in a much more balanced rivalry.
The bass is louder than the drums! Sean snaps a 5-game losing streak against Jarrett and beats him for the first time since Week 9, 2018. It was in that game that Jarrett failed to score 100 points which ended his record streak of 7 consecutive games of scoring 100 points or more. Sean would win that game and score over 100 points and would go on to break Jarrett’s record the following week with an 8th straight 100+ point game. Neither team ended up making the playoffs that year despite Sean scoring the 2nd most points in league history and Jarrett finishing with the 6th most.
Through the first 7 weeks, teams were 19-2 when scoring at least 100 points (90.5% win pct). Since then, teams are 14-5 (73.7% win pct).
After a week of falling behind, Ryan re-passes Jarrett to move back into 5th place for average points per game from the RB position.
Jacob passes Aaron to move into 5th place for average points per game from the K position.
A fun nugget to remember is Jake’s record against Ryan, Schweg & Sean in comparison to Jake’s record vs the rest of the league. Jake is 44-15 against those 3 owners and 50-67-2 against the rest of the league.
Ever since winning his 3rd Robbie Bowl, Terrance is now 10-26-1 over the last 3 seasons.
Jarrett has not clinched last place yet, and he gets to play the two 3-9 teams to close out the season: Chase & Terrance. If he wins both of those games and Chase loses to Aaron in Week 14, Jarrett could snake his way out of last place.
Jake has now failed to score 100 points in 11 consecutive games. That is the 5th longest streak in league history.
Schweg goes 3-1 in the month of November and remains the king of November with a 61.8% win pct. That drops down to 48.5% for Schweg in the month of December.
Jacob has won his 3rd division title, which is tied with Ryan and Sean for 2nd most. Aaron has won 4 division titles, but Sean could also end up winning is division and moving up to 4 as well. Jacob will be in the playoffs for the 8th time in his 11 year career. The 8 playoff appearances are the most by any team in league history, breaking the tie he held with Terrance.
Sean will be making his 5th playoff appearance while Erik will be making his 4th playoff appearance (all of which have come in the past 6 years). Both of these teams have now made the playoffs in 3 consecutive seasons, which is tied for 2nd most.
Chase has now missed the playoffs in 6 consecutive seasons which is tied for the 2nd longest playoff drought in league history.
Schweg will be looking for his 3rd playoff appearance, and will try to prevent Aaron from making his 6th trip to the playoffs.
Week 13 Preview
Erik (9-3) vs Schweg (8-4)
The Schwegler Bowl is always one of the best games of our season, regardless of team records and implications. Schweg has a chance to punch his ticket to the playoffs with a win, while his younger brother has an opportunity to keep him from qualifying while staying in the division race. The most famous Schwegler matchup took place in Week 14 of our inaugural 2011 season. Schweg just needed to win to make the playoffs but lost to Erik 157-143. The 300 combined points still stands today as the most combined points in a single game. Erik leads the series 13-9, and won their lone playoff matchup in Robbie Bowl VII.
Game Rating: 17
Jacob (10-2) vs Aaron (6-6)
This classic, brotherly rivalry has been one of the best rivalries in the league for year. They have met twice in the semifinals, and Jacob won both of those matchups to advance to Robbie Bowl II and Robbie Bowl V. Aaron won the 3rd place game against Jacob in 2018. Aaron leads the all-time series 11-10-1.
Game Rating: 16
Sean (10-2) vs Jake (4-8)
Jake has won 4 straight games against Sean and leads the aforementioned series 12-4. The 75% win pct is tied for the 2nd most lopsided rivalry in the league. These teams have met 3 times in the playoffs and Jake has won all 3 games. That includes a victory in Robbie Bowl I, and semifinal victories in each of the last 2 seasons.
Game Rating: 14
Ryan (6-6) vs Terrance (3-9)
Ryan may have been eliminated from playoff contention, but he is still trying to get his 7th win to avoid a losing season. Ryan has never had a losing season in the history of the league, as he has finished 7-7 or 8-6 in all 11 seasons. Terrance leads the series 10-8 and has won all 3 of their playoff matchups which propelled Terrance to each of his 3 championships. That included a semifinal win in 2014, and back to back wins in Robbie Bowl VIII and Robbie Bowl IX.
Game Rating: 9
Chase (3-9) vs Jarrett (1-11)
One of these two teams will finish in last place. Terrance already beat both of these teams so he would win any tiebreaker and will not be the first person to finish in last place in back to back seasons. If Chase wins, Jarrett will clinch last place. Chase leads the series 10-9.
Game Rating: 4