It’s time for me to write the “loser’s letter” to avoid being charged $5.00 for not writing it, since I have invested enough in this league already with 52 adds and 3 trades. It does seem that the LL has run its course, but I do like the idea of just implementing a mandatory $5 fine for being the lowest scorer of the week. We’ve added $50 to the league pot this season from the LL, but a mandatory fee would add $70 to the pot each year. I will say that I’d be open to discussing the finances at the banquet this year. We can decide if we like the system as it is or if we want to switch to a flat rate of the league average which would be about $90. I’m willing to raise the stakes if you are! If you listened to the Vaiden Brothers Podcast and heard the segment about how much money we’d all have if we invested it all in Bitcoin, you’ll want to tune in to a follow up segment on the next Doug & Willy Podcast about everyone’s career winnings and losings. Without further ado, let’s jump into the notepad and we’ll close it out with the all important PLAYOFF SCENARIOS for the final two weeks.
For the 5th time in league history, we only have 1 playoff team clinched after Week 12. In 2011 and 2014, there was only 1 team clinched, and in 2018 and 2020, there were zero teams clinched after Week 12.
Erik is still our points leader and is on pace to score 1,517 points which would be the 4th most all-time. He also has the fewest points scored against him and is on pace to have 1,188 points scored against him which would be the 10th fewest ever. He already clinched the division and is guaranteed to be the #1 or #2 seed in the playoffs. His 3rd loss of the season allows the Two Dollar Pistols from 2013 to celebrate having the best regular season finish (and overall finish) in league history with a 12-2 record (14-2).
Ryan is on pace to score 1,116 points which would be the 5th fewest points ever scored in a single season. He has failed to score 100 points in 10 consecutive weeks which is tied for the 8th worst streak in league history.
Terrance is on pace to have 1,443 points scored against him which would be the 4th most all-time.
Jake was the only person to score over 100 points this week, and he does it for the 5th time this season, but it’s the first time he’s done it since Week 5.
Erik’s streak of six consecutive 100 point games comes to an end.
Nick Folk drops a season high 18 points from a kicker for Chase this week, but Sean left Daniel Carlson’s 19 points on his bench this week.
Schweg’s 25 points from the Miami D/ST is the 2nd most from a D/ST this season.
Jacob has started 12 different running backs this season, which is the most in his career. The record is 14.
Jarrett loses his 7th consecutive game to Terrance, falling to 4-15 against him which is tied for the most lopsided rivalry in the league with Jake vs Schweg. The 7 straight wins are tied for the 4th longest streak.
Jake wins to tie Ryan for the 2nd most career wins in league history with 87.
Jarrett ties Ryan for 5th place all-time for average points per RB start.
Jake passes Terrance to move into 3rd place all-time for average points per WR start.
Aaron passes Sean to move into 3rd place all-time for average points per TE start.
Schweg passes Ryan to move into 2nd place all-time for average points per D/ST start.
Schweg leads the all-time series against Aaron, 12-7.
Jake leads the all-time series against Chase, 8-7.
Jacob leads the all-time series against Erik, 10-6.
Sean ties the all-time series against Ryan 7-7 and has won 4 of the last 5.
Jake and Jacob are both 8-4, but neither has clinched the playoffs. One of them will be the winner of the Vaidenville division. Historically, all teams with 4 or fewer losses after Week 12 have made the playoffs.
Sean is now 6-5-1, which historically has an 88% chance of making the playoffs.
Ryan and Aaron are both 6-6, and historically have a 23% chance of making the playoffs.
Jarrett & Chase both have 7 losses and are still in playoff contention, but no team with 7 losses through Week 12 has ever made the playoffs.
Ryan (117) vs Schweg (56)
Christian McCaffrey - 45
DeVonta Smith - 72
David Montgomery - 40
Calvin Ridley - 16
Ryan (39) vs Terrance (61)
Chuba Hubbard - 39
Melvin Gordon - 61
Ryan (25) vs Sean (10)
Diontae Johnson - 25
Rhamondre Stevenson - 10
Jacob (52) vs Aaron (21)
Joe Mixon - 52
Mark Andrews - 19
Kareem Hunt - 2
Week 13 Preview
Erik (9-3) vs Schweg (3-8-1) - Erik leads the series 11-9
Jake (8-4) vs Jarrett (5-7) - Jarrett leads the series 9-3 and has won 4 straight
Jacob (8-4) vs Sean (6-5-1) - Jacob leads the series 11-6 and has won 5 straight
Ryan (6-6) vs Terrance (3-8-1) - Terrance leads the series 10-6
Aaron (6-6) vs Chase (4-7-1) - Aaron leads the series 7-5
Without further ado, here are the playoff scenarios heading into the last two weeks. There are many avenues this playoff picture can go, and every game will matter especially when factoring in Strength of Victory tiebreakers.
Erik has already clinched his division. He can clinch the #1 seed with a win and losses from Jake and Jacob, OR he can win his last two games.
Jake can clinch a playoff spot with a win, OR he needs two out of these three to lose: Aaron, Sean and Ryan. He can clinch his division with a win and a loss from Jacob. Jake can clinch the #1 seed by winning his last two games.
Jacob can clinch a playoff spot with a win, OR he needs Ryan and Aaron to lose. Jacob can clinch his division with two wins and one loss from Jake.
Sean can clinch a playoff spot by winning his last two games, or he can win one of his last two games and have Ryan and Aaron each lose one game.
Ryan can clinch a playoff spot with two wins and one loss from Sean, or with one win and two losses from Sean and one loss from Aaron.
Aaron needs to win his last two games and have Ryan and Sean each lose one game, or he needs to end up tied with Jacob at 8-6 to win the strength of victory tiebreaker. Currently, Jacob’s SOV is 42, and Aaron’s is 34 but with an implied 46.5 at season’s end. If Aaron ends up tied with Jake at 8-6, it would be decided in strength of victory which is too close to call. Aaron cannot win the division.
Jarrett can clinch a playoff spot by winning his last two games and having Sean, Aaron and Ryan all lose their last two games.
Chase can clinch a playoff spot by winning his last two games and having Sean, Aaron and Ryan all lose their last two games.